Old Friends
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 106 (30 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 55
Defender wins (German): 50
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1217 | 1119 | 64% | 2026-01-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2024-03-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2024-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1178 | 1132 | 57% | 2021-09-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 976 | 53% | 2021-05-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2020-08-11 | | Lost |
| 998 | 1151 | 29% | 2020-02-29 | | Lost |
| 976 | 1226 | 19% | 2019-08-22 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2019-03-23 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2018-12-20 | | Tied |
| 980 | 1141 | 28% | 2018-09-28 | | Won |
| 1071 | 897 | 73% | 2018-08-20 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2018-03-17 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2017-05-06 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1263 | 21% | 2017-03-29 | | Lost |
| 961 | 1020 | 42% | 2017-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1222 | 1000 | 78% | 2017-02-19 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-12-29 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-12-09 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 967 | 71% | 2016-09-19 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1073 | 57% | 2016-09-01 | | Lost |
| 938 | 1218 | 17% | 2016-08-30 | | Lost |
| 1075 | 992 | 62% | 2016-08-10 | | Won |
| 1099 | 1012 | 62% | 2016-06-27 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1056 | 59% | 2016-06-03 | | Won |
| 1147 | 1081 | 59% | 2016-05-03 | | Lost |
| 1080 | 1000 | 61% | 2016-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1035 | 54% | 2016-04-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2016-04-07 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1196 | 36% | 2014-01-20 | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1073.6 vs 1048.7 has a 53.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).