Old Friends
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 106 (30 on the archive and 76 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 55
Defender wins (German): 50
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1221 | 1134 | 62% | 2026-01-30 | Lost |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 1039 | 983 | 58% | 2024-03-08 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1136 | 56% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-05-31 | Won |
| 865 | 913 | 43% | 2020-08-11 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2019-08-22 | Lost |
| 983 | 1059 | 39% | 2019-03-23 | Won |
| 1029 | 1063 | 45% | 2018-12-20 | Tied |
| 979 | 1140 | 28% | 2018-09-28 | Won |
| 1071 | 910 | 72% | 2018-08-20 | Won |
| 1040 | 957 | 62% | 2018-03-17 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1012 | 71% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 1232 | 1421 | 25% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 1027 | 1264 | 20% | 2017-03-29 | Lost |
| 961 | 1072 | 35% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 1216 | 1047 | 73% | 2017-02-19 | Won |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2016-12-29 | Won |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2016-12-09 | Lost |
| 1110 | 952 | 71% | 2016-09-19 | Won |
| 1175 | 1073 | 64% | 2016-09-01 | Lost |
| 930 | 1218 | 16% | 2016-08-30 | Lost |
| 1064 | 998 | 59% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1098 | 1012 | 62% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1120 | 1056 | 59% | 2016-06-03 | Won |
| 1134 | 1006 | 68% | 2016-05-03 | Lost |
| 1040 | 897 | 69% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 1059 | 993 | 59% | 2016-04-28 | Lost |
| 893 | 884 | 51% | 2016-04-07 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1190 | 37% | 2014-01-20 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1070.9 vs 1062.4 has a 51.22% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).