Old Friends
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (28 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 44
Defender wins (German): 58
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 968 | 953 | 52% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1051 | 48% | 2024-03-08 | Lost |
| 1178 | 1135 | 56% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1043 | 48% | 2021-05-31 | Won |
| 866 | 918 | 43% | 2020-08-11 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1226 | 26% | 2019-08-22 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1063 | 48% | 2019-03-23 | Won |
| 1082 | 1063 | 53% | 2018-12-20 | Tied |
| 981 | 1152 | 27% | 2018-09-28 | Won |
| 1067 | 878 | 75% | 2018-08-20 | Won |
| 1036 | 960 | 61% | 2018-03-17 | Lost |
| 1141 | 947 | 75% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 1333 | 1062 | 83% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 961 | 1091 | 32% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1009 | 77% | 2017-02-19 | Won |
| 1226 | 1174 | 57% | 2016-12-29 | Won |
| 1226 | 1137 | 63% | 2016-12-09 | Lost |
| 1162 | 976 | 74% | 2016-09-19 | Won |
| 1189 | 1091 | 64% | 2016-09-01 | Lost |
| 938 | 1219 | 17% | 2016-08-30 | Lost |
| 1198 | 893 | 85% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1099 | 1012 | 62% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1106 | 1039 | 60% | 2016-06-03 | Won |
| 1065 | 1028 | 55% | 2016-05-03 | Lost |
| 1070 | 898 | 73% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 1057 | 1063 | 49% | 2016-04-28 | Lost |
| 893 | 927 | 45% | 2016-04-07 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1152 | 40% | 2014-01-20 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1082.1 vs 1041.4 has a 55.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).