Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (12 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (American): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1147 | 1275 | 32% | 2024-06-27 | | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2023-03-05 | | Lost |
| 1253 | 953 | 85% | 2023-03-02 | | Won |
| 996 | 1140 | 30% | 2023-02-03 | | Lost |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2023-01-31 | | Won |
| 967 | 1000 | 45% | 2020-09-16 | | Won |
| 1013 | 1149 | 31% | 2020-04-18 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2018-05-04 | | Won |
| 1133 | 964 | 73% | 2017-08-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1062 | 41% | 2016-08-06 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 968 | 63% | 2016-04-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2016-04-29 | | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1054.8 vs 1037.6 has a 52.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).