Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (12 on the archive and 23 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (American): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 1254 | 25% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 959 | 989 | 46% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1243 | 919 | 87% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1062 | 1111 | 43% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1048 | 49% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 900 | 866 | 55% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 1014 | 972 | 56% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1062 | 82% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1200 | 968 | 79% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1118 | 35% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1118 | 968 | 70% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 872 | 950 | 39% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1067.8 vs 1018.8 has a 57.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).