Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 37 (12 on the archive and 25 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (American): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1078 | 1255 | 27% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1244 | 1031 | 77% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1029 | 1111 | 38% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1017 | 51% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 917 | 866 | 57% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 1041 | 973 | 60% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1419 | 39% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1186 | 970 | 78% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1089 | 39% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1089 | 968 | 67% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 872 | 879 | 49% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1065.6 vs 1044.3 has a 53.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).