Deadly Assumption
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 35 (12 on the archive and 23 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 16
Defender wins (American): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 1254 | 25% | 2024-06-27 | Lost |
| 975 | 975 | 50% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1243 | 927 | 86% | 2023-03-02 | Won |
| 1051 | 1101 | 43% | 2023-02-03 | Lost |
| 971 | 927 | 56% | 2023-01-31 | Won |
| 914 | 866 | 57% | 2020-09-16 | Won |
| 1002 | 1004 | 50% | 2020-04-18 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1062 | 81% | 2018-05-04 | Won |
| 1202 | 967 | 79% | 2017-08-13 | Lost |
| 984 | 1099 | 34% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1099 | 968 | 68% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 874 | 998 | 33% | 2016-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1057.3 vs 1012.3 has a 56.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).