Aiding the Local Constabulary (3 player)
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 36 (23 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian / South African ): 18
Defender wins (Italian (Mutineers)): 16
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Italian / South African ): 0
Defender wins (Italian (Mutineers)): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1231 | 21% | 2026-09-19 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1013 | 60% | 2026-05-09 | | Lost |
| 1435 | 1171 | 82% | 2023-12-27 | | Won |
| 1033 | 959 | 60% | 2023-07-22 | A | Lost |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2023-05-20 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-10-22 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1284 | 16% | 2022-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1284 | 30% | 2022-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2021-06-06 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1077 | 39% | 2021-04-10 | | Won |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-01-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2019-10-19 | | Won |
| 992 | 1059 | 40% | 2019-09-28 | | Won |
| 1284 | 1077 | 77% | 2019-07-20 | | Won |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-03-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2019-01-04 | | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2018-11-27 | | Won |
| 973 | 1219 | 20% | 2018-11-10 | | Tied |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-09-09 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2016-08-13 | | Won |
| 1132 | 1000 | 68% | 2016-06-04 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2016-03-12 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2016-01-01 | | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1061.4 vs 1075.4 has a 47.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).