The Golden Arrow
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 74 (16 on the archive and 58 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 38
Defender wins (German): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 923 | 986 | 41% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 1220 | 739 | 94% | 2020-08-03 | Won |
| 1030 | 1030 | 50% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1010 | 52% | 2019-11-10 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1216 | 24% | 2019-06-09 | Lost |
| 960 | 1113 | 29% | 2017-12-26 | Won |
| 1140 | 964 | 73% | 2017-11-05 | Won |
| 980 | 1046 | 41% | 2017-10-06 | Lost |
| 977 | 1079 | 36% | 2017-08-17 | Lost |
| 1140 | 753 | 90% | 2017-06-28 | Won |
| 1132 | 1126 | 51% | 2017-06-13 | Lost |
| 1077 | 977 | 64% | 2017-05-19 | Won |
| 1239 | 1420 | 26% | 2017-04-25 | Won |
| 1060 | 1067 | 49% | 2016-12-05 | Won |
| 1077 | 1033 | 56% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
| 1077 | 1033 | 56% | 2016-01-05 | Won |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 1067.2 vs 1037 has a 54.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).