Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28 (9 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 15
Defender wins (Japanese): 13
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 993 | 976 | 52% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 967 | 930 | 55% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1048 | 1041 | 51% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1072 | 57% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1244 | 993 | 81% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1094 | 53% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 849 | 1115 | 18% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 978 | 1056 | 39% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1040.1 vs 1036.1 has a 50.58% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).