Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28 (9 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 15
Defender wins (Japanese): 13
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 964 | 975 | 48% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 966 | 891 | 61% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1064 | 1039 | 54% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1012 | 65% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1243 | 964 | 83% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1097 | 48% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 830 | 1083 | 19% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 978 | 1058 | 39% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1032.2 vs 1016.3 has a 52.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).