Probe on the Trail to Hell
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 29 (10 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 15
Defender wins (Japanese): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 927 | 999 | 40% | 2024-11-14 | Lost |
| 966 | 896 | 60% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1028 | 52% | 2023-03-25 | Won |
| 1133 | 1041 | 63% | 2022-08-21 | Lost |
| 1120 | 1059 | 59% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1243 | 927 | 86% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1085 | 1096 | 48% | 2016-06-26 | Won |
| 805 | 1085 | 17% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 1254 | 1148 | 65% | 2015-10-04 | Lost |
| 972 | 1057 | 38% | 2015-10-03 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1054.7 vs 1033.6 has a 53.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).