Totsugeki!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (Japanese): 12
Defender wins (Chinese): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 865 | 837 | 54% | 2026-01-29 | Won |
| 945 | 1039 | 37% | 2026-01-03 | Lost |
| 940 | 940 | 50% | 2025-11-03 | Lost |
| 1311 | 994 | 86% | 2025-10-26 | Lost |
| 994 | 1311 | 14% | 2025-10-26 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1012 | 70% | 2025-10-09 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1083 | 53% | 2023-04-28 | Lost |
| 950 | 1023 | 40% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 969 | 994 | 46% | 2022-05-22 | Lost |
| 989 | 989 | 50% | 2022-05-22 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2020-08-27 | Lost |
| 951 | 1006 | 42% | 2020-08-26 | Lost |
| 1010 | 970 | 56% | 2020-08-22 | Lost |
| 949 | 1138 | 25% | 2020-08-18 | Won |
| 1078 | 1032 | 57% | 2020-08-16 | Lost |
| 939 | 1122 | 26% | 2020-08-04 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1182 | 48% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 1132 | 1178 | 43% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
| 878 | 945 | 40% | 2019-07-16 | Tied |
| 957 | 1182 | 21% | 2019-03-15 | Won |
| 1216 | 1149 | 60% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 1158 | 1149 | 51% | 2017-11-17 | Won |
| 945 | 878 | 60% | 2017-02-13 | Won |
| 1020 | 987 | 55% | 2016-09-01 | Lost |
| 1016 | 907 | 65% | 2016-04-10 | Lost |
| 929 | 1212 | 16% | 2016-02-01 | Won |
| 850 | 873 | 47% | 2015-02-03 | Lost |
| 999 | 973 | 54% | 2014-06-29 | Won |
| 1138 | 1164 | 46% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1146 | 1081 | 59% | 2013-12-01 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1022 vs 1045.2 has a 46.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).