A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 82 (26 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 50
Defender wins (British): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1101 | 978 | 67% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 1117 | 939 | 74% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 891 | 881 | 51% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1109 | 1127 | 47% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1189 | 990 | 76% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1071 | 1046 | 54% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1419 | 990 | 92% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1071 | 1035 | 55% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 940 | 47% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 1013 | 1006 | 51% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 951 | 1010 | 42% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1059 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 1003 | 905 | 64% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1285 | 1154 | 68% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 973 | 1110 | 31% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1168 | 1151 | 52% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1110 | 975 | 69% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1105 | 1174 | 40% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1072 | 46% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1175 | 1340 | 28% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1099 | 53% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1419 | 1113 | 85% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1067 | 1099 | 45% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1226 | 37% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1100.8 vs 1055.6 has a 56.46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).