A Frosty Morning
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 83 (27 on the archive and 56 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German / Italian): 51
Defender wins (British): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1101 | 1075 | 54% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 1084 | 935 | 70% | 2025-04-12 | Won |
| 892 | 870 | 53% | 2025-01-22 | Won |
| 1073 | 1085 | 48% | 2024-12-15 | Won |
| 1201 | 1055 | 70% | 2024-11-19 | Won |
| 1071 | 1062 | 51% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2024-02-28 | Won |
| 1423 | 1055 | 89% | 2023-06-10 | Won |
| 1071 | 1035 | 55% | 2021-03-08 | Won |
| 916 | 941 | 46% | 2021-03-01 | Won |
| 1018 | 1001 | 52% | 2021-02-19 | Won |
| 951 | 1065 | 34% | 2020-09-30 | Lost |
| 1059 | 982 | 61% | 2020-09-01 | Lost |
| 1003 | 891 | 66% | 2020-01-30 | Won |
| 1283 | 1139 | 70% | 2019-03-30 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-12-17 | Lost |
| 1283 | 1077 | 77% | 2017-10-30 | Won |
| 972 | 1101 | 32% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1179 | 1140 | 56% | 2015-11-14 | Lost |
| 1101 | 980 | 67% | 2015-10-30 | Won |
| 1111 | 1159 | 43% | 2014-04-05 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1072 | 46% | 2014-03-08 | Won |
| 1175 | 1252 | 39% | 2013-10-28 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1098 | 54% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1423 | 1119 | 85% | 2013-06-15 | Won |
| 1071 | 1098 | 46% | 2013-04-08 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2013-02-22 | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1106.3 vs 1059.9 has a 56.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).