Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 179 (49 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 75
Defender wins (German): 101
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2025-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 991 | 51% | 2024-11-23 | | Won |
| 949 | 1000 | 43% | 2024-11-16 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2024-04-28 | D | Lost |
| 989 | 1001 | 48% | 2024-02-07 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1015 | 45% | 2024-01-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2023-08-09 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 945 | 76% | 2023-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2022-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 2021-03-19 | | Lost |
| 940 | 991 | 43% | 2020-12-13 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1032 | 61% | 2020-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2020-04-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2020-03-16 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 1088 | 54% | 2019-12-14 | | Lost |
| 945 | 1343 | 9% | 2019-06-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2018-09-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2018-08-10 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1064 | 60% | 2018-06-21 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1059 | 42% | 2018-05-25 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1289 | 18% | 2018-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1289 | 1116 | 73% | 2018-05-02 | | Won |
| 970 | 1147 | 27% | 2017-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 1014 | 55% | 2017-09-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2017-09-24 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2016-06-26 | | Lost |
| 1163 | 1136 | 54% | 2016-03-29 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 1035 | 61% | 2015-09-09 | | Lost |
| 913 | 1000 | 38% | 2015-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2013-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1127 | 40% | 2013-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1230 | 1000 | 79% | 2013-09-01 | | Won |
| 1045 | 1000 | 56% | 2013-05-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1133 | 32% | 2013-05-18 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2013-04-04 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2013-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1061 | 41% | 2013-02-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2013-02-08 | | Tied |
| 1138 | 1023 | 66% | 2012-07-28 | | Won |
| 921 | 995 | 40% | 2012-06-18 | | Lost |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2012-03-16 | | Won |
| 1163 | 1183 | 47% | 2012-03-09 | | Won |
| 1435 | 994 | 93% | 2012-01-23 | | Tied |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2012-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2012-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2012-01-11 | | Won |
| 1022 | 1169 | 30% | 2011-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2011-06-16 | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1053.5 vs 1050 has a 50.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).