Der Letzte Geburtstag
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 56 (13 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 33
Defender wins (German): 23
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1019 | 986 | 55% | 2025-06-26 | Lost |
| 1075 | 938 | 69% | 2023-04-24 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1092 | 64% | 2019-12-28 | Won |
| 960 | 1252 | 16% | 2016-12-30 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1177 | 46% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
| 877 | 1086 | 23% | 2010-10-06 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1029 | 46% | 2010-05-16 | Won |
| 1149 | 1313 | 28% | 2010-05-02 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1133 | 50% | 2009-12-30 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1243 | 22% | 2009-10-29 | Lost |
| 1243 | 1020 | 78% | 2009-10-29 | Won |
| 1020 | 973 | 57% | 2009-10-23 | Won |
| 1095 | 1099 | 49% | 2009-10-08 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1071.5 vs 1103.2 has a 45.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).