Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (14 on the archive and 48 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 29
Defender wins (American): 33
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 952 | 1156 | 24% | 2024-09-06 | | Won |
| 1102 | 1073 | 54% | 2024-05-01 | | Lost |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1078 | 69% | 2021-10-02 | | Won |
| 975 | 1123 | 30% | 2021-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 1018 | 76% | 2020-03-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1167 | 28% | 2020-03-07 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-01-29 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1084 | 38% | 2019-11-13 | | Won |
| 1084 | 1000 | 62% | 2019-11-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2013-07-10 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | | Won |
| 1063 | 1051 | 52% | 2011-10-06 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2010-06-22 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1031.1 vs 1051.7 has a 47.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).