Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 14
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 6
Defender wins (American): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 973 | 60% | 2024-09-06 | Won |
| 1186 | 1082 | 65% | 2024-05-01 | Lost |
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2021-10-11 | Lost |
| 1340 | 1037 | 85% | 2021-10-02 | Won |
| 972 | 1149 | 27% | 2021-08-01 | Lost |
| 1217 | 1046 | 73% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1123 | 1084 | 56% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 973 | 1118 | 30% | 2019-11-13 | Won |
| 1118 | 973 | 70% | 2019-11-12 | Lost |
| 1009 | 963 | 57% | 2013-07-10 | Lost |
| 1100 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1051 | 1058 | 49% | 2011-10-06 | Lost |
| 713 | 1151 | 7% | 2010-06-22 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1056.9 vs 1034.3 has a 53.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).