Ripples on the Pond
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 54 (28 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 32
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2025-08-16 | | Won |
| 1288 | 1000 | 84% | 2025-01-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 986 | 52% | 2024-12-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2024-08-30 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1000 | 75% | 2023-09-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2022-11-29 | | Lost |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-11-23 | | Won |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2022-06-15 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-03-08 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 925 | 61% | 2021-04-27 | | Won |
| 925 | 1140 | 22% | 2021-04-13 | | Lost |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2021-04-09 | | Won |
| 982 | 964 | 53% | 2021-04-06 | | Won |
| 1035 | 996 | 56% | 2021-03-20 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2020-09-29 | | Won |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2020-07-07 | | Lost |
| 1164 | 992 | 73% | 2020-06-07 | | Won |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2020-05-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2020-02-16 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1061 | 41% | 2018-03-01 | | Won |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-12-21 | | Lost |
| 889 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-11-21 | | Lost |
| 889 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-09-05 | | Tied |
| 1033 | 1108 | 39% | 2011-07-13 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2010-01-01 | | Won |
| 1039 | 1045 | 49% | 2009-07-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2008-10-09 | | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2008-09-26 | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1045.4 vs 1017.6 has a 53.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).