The Chernichivo Shuffle
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 84 (15 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 45
Defender wins (German (SS)): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1096 | 1153 | 42% | 2024-05-08 | Won |
| 1051 | 1030 | 53% | 2023-08-12 | Won |
| 974 | 957 | 52% | 2023-08-12 | Won |
| 940 | 922 | 53% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1416 | 985 | 92% | 2021-12-19 | Won |
| 1045 | 1106 | 41% | 2021-10-09 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1045 | 50% | 2020-11-29 | Lost |
| 1007 | 1270 | 18% | 2018-06-18 | Won |
| 1068 | 1333 | 18% | 2017-09-07 | Won |
| 1124 | 1055 | 60% | 2016-10-05 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1041 | 52% | 2009-01-12 | Won |
| 1030 | 1186 | 29% | 2007-10-27 | Won |
| 1186 | 1001 | 74% | 2007-05-27 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1111 | 64% | 2006-04-22 | Won |
| 1247 | 1143 | 65% | 2005-08-09 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1099.5 vs 1089.2 has a 51.49% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).