Auld Lang Syne
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 99 (24 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 54
Defender wins (American): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 917 | 907 | 51% | 2026-07-14 | | Won |
| 956 | 994 | 45% | 2025-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 955 | 56% | 2024-12-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1129 | 32% | 2024-09-28 | | Lost |
| 1129 | 1000 | 68% | 2024-07-21 | | Won |
| 1005 | 1000 | 51% | 2024-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1042 | 44% | 2023-12-29 | | Lost |
| 1162 | 1000 | 72% | 2023-12-12 | | Lost |
| 1292 | 1040 | 81% | 2022-05-30 | | Lost |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-05-28 | | Won |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-05-04 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 903 | 64% | 2020-08-04 | | Won |
| 903 | 1166 | 18% | 2019-06-13 | | Lost |
| 971 | 1052 | 39% | 2015-07-15 | | Won |
| 959 | 943 | 52% | 2015-03-21 | | Lost |
| 1111 | 972 | 69% | 2014-02-22 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2014-02-12 | | Lost |
| 1230 | 1101 | 68% | 2012-10-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2012-09-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 963 | 55% | 2012-09-15 | | Won |
| 966 | 1084 | 34% | 2010-10-02 | | Won |
| 1062 | 1000 | 59% | 2010-01-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1065 | 41% | 2004-11-29 | | Lost |
| 984 | 1059 | 39% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1023.8 vs 1014.1 has a 51.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).