Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 137 (33 on the archive and 104 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 68
Defender wins (British / French): 69
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 974 | 962 | 52% | 2026-06-04 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-03-09 | | Won |
| 991 | 1056 | 41% | 2025-07-12 | | Lost |
| 905 | 1000 | 37% | 2024-05-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2024-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1061 | 996 | 59% | 2024-03-06 | | Won |
| 1080 | 984 | 63% | 2023-05-31 | | Won |
| 1080 | 984 | 63% | 2023-05-30 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2023-05-25 | | Won |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-08-30 | | Won |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2022-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1097 | 1134 | 45% | 2021-09-29 | | Won |
| 1105 | 1097 | 51% | 2020-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2020-03-07 | | Lost |
| 1170 | 729 | 93% | 2019-08-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2018-08-26 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2018-06-21 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2015-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1097 | 1226 | 32% | 2014-08-16 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1170 | 29% | 2013-12-16 | | Lost |
| 1044 | 1134 | 37% | 2013-01-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2012-09-16 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2011-08-29 | | Lost |
| 960 | 1167 | 23% | 2010-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1167 | 940 | 79% | 2010-03-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2007-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1347 | 33% | 2005-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1004 | 1226 | 22% | 2005-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1023 | 47% | 2004-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1179 | 1074 | 65% | 2003-01-28 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1317 | 28% | 2002-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2002-09-16 | | Won |
| 1086 | 1029 | 58% | | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1062.3 vs 1054.5 has a 51.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).