Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 139 (34 on the archive and 106 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 69
Defender wins (British / French): 70
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (British / French): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 979 | 1074 | 37% | 2026-11-01 | A | Lost |
| 974 | 962 | 52% | 2026-06-04 | | Won |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2026-03-09 | | Won |
| 991 | 1060 | 40% | 2025-07-12 | | Lost |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2024-05-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 914 | 62% | 2024-04-22 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 994 | 62% | 2024-03-06 | | Won |
| 1058 | 995 | 59% | 2023-05-31 | | Won |
| 1058 | 995 | 59% | 2023-05-30 | | Won |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2023-05-25 | | Won |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-08-30 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2022-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1149 | 1134 | 52% | 2021-09-29 | | Won |
| 1104 | 1143 | 44% | 2020-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2020-03-07 | | Lost |
| 1185 | 728 | 93% | 2019-08-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2018-08-26 | | Lost |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-06-21 | | Won |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2015-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 1205 | 41% | 2014-08-16 | | Lost |
| 1015 | 1185 | 27% | 2013-12-16 | | Lost |
| 1084 | 1134 | 43% | 2013-01-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2012-09-16 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2011-08-29 | | Lost |
| 960 | 1183 | 22% | 2010-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1183 | 933 | 81% | 2010-03-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1034 | 45% | 2007-08-18 | | Lost |
| 1131 | 1348 | 22% | 2005-03-10 | | Lost |
| 1029 | 1131 | 36% | 2005-01-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2004-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1194 | 1074 | 67% | 2003-01-28 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1310 | 33% | 2002-12-05 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1000 | 67% | 2002-09-16 | | Won |
| 1086 | 1029 | 58% | | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1064.5 vs 1054.3 has a 51.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).