Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 28
Attacker wins (German): 12
Defender wins (British / French): 16
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 964 | 957 | 51% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 900 | 900 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 971 | 1010 | 44% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1043 | 1002 | 56% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1043 | 1002 | 56% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 1042 | 1093 | 43% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 1009 | 1031 | 47% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 1137 | 1009 | 68% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1079 | 68% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1091 | 1213 | 33% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 984 | 954 | 54% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1266 | 753 | 95% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1203 | 984 | 78% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1223 | 1133 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1213 | 1143 | 60% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1266 | 19% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1132 | 43% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1137 | 32% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 959 | 1009 | 43% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1137 | 32% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1183 | 1278 | 37% | 2005-03-26 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1183 | 31% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1080 | 62% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1254 | 38% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1051 | 58% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1105 | 1033 | 60% | | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1085.4 vs 1072.5 has a 51.86% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).