Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (German): 13
Defender wins (British / French): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1006 | 1028 | 47% | 2025-07-12 | Lost |
| 953 | 968 | 48% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 873 | 873 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1008 | 50% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1089 | 1037 | 57% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1089 | 1037 | 57% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 1015 | 1093 | 39% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 997 | 1030 | 45% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 1041 | 1075 | 45% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1139 | 1115 | 53% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1091 | 1211 | 33% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 1029 | 949 | 61% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1208 | 741 | 94% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1029 | 61% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1226 | 1137 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1141 | 60% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1208 | 24% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1133 | 46% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1041 | 55% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 960 | 1075 | 34% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1041 | 55% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1185 | 1330 | 30% | 2005-03-26 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1185 | 28% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1139 | 54% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1068 | 54% | 2003-01-28 | Won |
| 1127 | 1247 | 33% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1106 | 1052 | 58% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1104 | 1033 | 60% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1078.5 vs 1074.4 has a 50.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).