Unlucky Thirteenth
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 30
Attacker wins (German): 13
Defender wins (British / French): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1006 | 1028 | 47% | 2025-07-12 | Lost |
| 956 | 985 | 46% | 2024-05-12 | Won |
| 873 | 873 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1008 | 50% | 2024-03-06 | Won |
| 1044 | 1023 | 53% | 2023-05-31 | Won |
| 1044 | 1023 | 53% | 2023-05-30 | Won |
| 1033 | 1093 | 41% | 2023-05-25 | Won |
| 997 | 1031 | 45% | 2022-08-30 | Won |
| 1056 | 1044 | 52% | 2022-01-06 | Lost |
| 1200 | 1114 | 62% | 2021-09-29 | Won |
| 1091 | 1191 | 36% | 2020-04-14 | Lost |
| 947 | 946 | 50% | 2020-03-07 | Lost |
| 1242 | 745 | 95% | 2019-08-31 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2018-08-26 | Lost |
| 1143 | 947 | 76% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2015-09-27 | Lost |
| 1191 | 1154 | 55% | 2014-08-16 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1242 | 21% | 2013-12-16 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1133 | 45% | 2013-01-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1056 | 48% | 2011-08-29 | Lost |
| 959 | 1044 | 38% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1056 | 48% | 2010-03-03 | Won |
| 1177 | 1324 | 30% | 2005-03-26 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1177 | 28% | 2005-01-26 | Lost |
| 1165 | 1064 | 64% | 2004-01-01 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1050 | 57% | 2003-01-28 | Won |
| 1127 | 1247 | 33% | 2002-12-05 | Lost |
| 1107 | 1052 | 58% | 2002-09-16 | Won |
| 1090 | 1034 | 58% | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1074.5 vs 1067.6 has a 50.99% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).