Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 225 (47 on the archive and 178 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 110
Defender wins (American): 115
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2026-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1151 | 37% | 2025-01-08 | | Lost |
| 967 | 992 | 46% | 2024-11-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2023-02-27 | | Lost |
| 851 | 1000 | 30% | 2023-02-27 | | Lost |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2022-11-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1315 | 14% | 2021-07-25 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1031 | 19% | 2020-10-28 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 949 | 83% | 2020-09-08 | | Won |
| 1134 | 950 | 74% | 2020-08-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2019-05-08 | | Lost |
| 1013 | 960 | 58% | 2018-03-03 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1064 | 60% | 2018-03-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2018-02-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2018-02-11 | | Lost |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2014-01-18 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2012-02-25 | | Won |
| 1136 | 1097 | 56% | 2011-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1073 | 1000 | 60% | 2011-09-15 | | Won |
| 957 | 1136 | 26% | 2011-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 972 | 63% | 2010-03-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-08-23 | | Won |
| 1183 | 1136 | 57% | 2009-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1078 | 60% | 2008-03-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2008-01-27 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1122 | 56% | 2008-01-27 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1219 | 40% | 2007-09-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2007-09-07 | | Lost |
| 1155 | 1435 | 17% | 2007-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 992 | 65% | 2006-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1155 | 1151 | 51% | 2006-06-23 | | Lost |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2006-06-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2006-04-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2005-10-23 | | Won |
| 832 | 1150 | 14% | 2003-03-07 | | Won |
| 1074 | 925 | 70% | 2002-05-03 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2002-04-27 | | Won |
| 951 | 1343 | 9% | 2002-02-02 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2002-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1059 | 1000 | 58% | 2002-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2001-12-08 | | Won |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 2001-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2001-08-08 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2001-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
| 1086 | 945 | 69% | | | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1053.4 vs 1077.6 has a 46.52% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).