The Red Wave
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Russian): 9
Defender wins (German (SS)): 14
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German (SS)): 1
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1043 | 1001 | 56% | 2023-10-06 | Lost |
| 946 | 989 | 44% | 2023-03-05 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1257 | 20% | 2022-03-11 | Lost |
| 1257 | 1018 | 80% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1018 | 54% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1054 | 910 | 70% | 2021-02-13 | Lost |
| 943 | 996 | 42% | 2021-01-25 | Lost |
| 856 | 956 | 36% | 2021-01-25 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 997 | 1009 | 48% | 2020-01-11 | Lost |
| 887 | 996 | 35% | 2019-05-15 | Won |
| 869 | 847 | 53% | 2017-06-19 | Won |
| 1257 | 873 | 90% | 2016-12-30 | Won |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2016-01-24 | Lost |
| 1028 | 995 | 55% | 2015-10-28 | Lost |
| 1001 | 913 | 62% | 2015-06-14 | Lost |
| 934 | 1031 | 36% | 2008-04-04 | Won |
| 1015 | 932 | 62% | 2003-10-01 | Lost |
| 1248 | 1104 | 70% | 2000-06-25 | Won |
| 1014 | 1001 | 52% | 1999-07-01 | Won |
| 978 | 1152 | 27% | 1999-01-06 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1015 | 67% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 1998-03-18 | Won |
| 1098 | 890 | 77% | 1998-01-14 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1035.6 vs 1005.5 has a 54.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).