A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 133 (18 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 58
Defender wins (Russian): 74
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 1021 | 948 | 60% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 848 | 1080 | 21% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1032 | 66% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1028 | 1156 | 32% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 973 | 1021 | 43% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 890 | 1141 | 19% | 2007-09-20 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1035 | 60% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 1273 | 1263 | 51% | 2004-07-22 | Lost |
| 939 | 1055 | 34% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1119 | 1317 | 24% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1079 | 70% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1182 | 41% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1117 | 50% | 1996-12-18 | Won |
| 1056 | 1077 | 47% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1057.9 vs 1089.7 has a 45.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).