A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 132 (18 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 58
Defender wins (Russian): 73
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1046 | 1055 | 49% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1046 | 997 | 57% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 973 | 948 | 54% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 879 | 1081 | 24% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1031 | 60% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1027 | 1076 | 43% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 972 | 973 | 50% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 890 | 1140 | 19% | 2007-09-20 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1036 | 60% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 1271 | 1249 | 53% | 2004-07-22 | Lost |
| 972 | 1055 | 38% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1180 | 1294 | 34% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1036 | 982 | 58% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1184 | 56% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1180 | 1169 | 52% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 1996-12-18 | Won |
| 1068 | 1054 | 52% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1059.3 vs 1079.3 has a 47.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).