First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1077 | 906 | 73% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 932 | 1216 | 16% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1127 | 1132 | 49% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1032 | 1010 | 53% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1191 | 44% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 943 | 939 | 51% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1057 | 39% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1084 | 906 | 74% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 1084 | 1039 | 56% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1011 | 51% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1212 | 1141 | 60% | 2007-10-01 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1101 | 64% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1048 | 1030 | 53% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1065 | 1118 | 42% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1078 | 1078 | 50% | | Won |
| 1078 | 833 | 80% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1071.7 vs 1049.1 has a 53.24% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).