First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 90 (18 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (British): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2022-12-04 | | Lost |
| 1077 | 907 | 73% | 2020-12-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2020-07-05 | | Won |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2020-02-09 | | Won |
| 1032 | 1006 | 54% | 2019-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1175 | 1000 | 73% | 2019-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 930 | 60% | 2017-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1057 | 42% | 2015-05-16 | | Won |
| 1008 | 906 | 64% | 2015-05-05 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1039 | 46% | 2014-04-18 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 1016 | 50% | 2009-03-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2007-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2003-04-27 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2000-07-08 | | Won |
| 1076 | 1000 | 61% | 2000-05-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1070 | 40% | | | Won |
| 1070 | 832 | 80% | | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1044.4 vs 1012.4 has a 54.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).