First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 90 (18 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 43
Defender wins (British): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2022-12-04 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 907 | 74% | 2020-12-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1218 | 22% | 2020-07-05 | | Won |
| 1095 | 1000 | 63% | 2020-02-09 | | Won |
| 1017 | 1022 | 49% | 2019-05-22 | | Lost |
| 1206 | 1000 | 77% | 2019-05-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 958 | 56% | 2017-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2015-05-16 | | Won |
| 1068 | 906 | 72% | 2015-05-05 | | Won |
| 1068 | 1039 | 54% | 2014-04-18 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2013-03-24 | | Lost |
| 1019 | 956 | 59% | 2009-03-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1169 | 27% | 2007-10-01 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2003-04-27 | | Won |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2000-07-08 | | Won |
| 1162 | 1000 | 72% | 2000-05-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1189 | 25% | | | Won |
| 1189 | 832 | 89% | | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1063.2 vs 1018.2 has a 56.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).