First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 5
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1051 | 918 | 68% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 939 | 1214 | 17% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1099 | 1133 | 45% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1031 | 1002 | 54% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 957 | 939 | 53% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 997 | 1033 | 45% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1084 | 906 | 74% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 1084 | 1019 | 59% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1011 | 51% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1225 | 1098 | 68% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1047 | 1075 | 46% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1126 | 1149 | 47% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1164 | 1164 | 50% | | Won |
| 1164 | 844 | 86% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1077.2 vs 1040 has a 55.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).