First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 17
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 5
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1070 | 918 | 71% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 932 | 1219 | 16% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1099 | 1133 | 45% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1053 | 991 | 59% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1201 | 992 | 77% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 947 | 964 | 48% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1031 | 43% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1061 | 906 | 71% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 1061 | 1051 | 51% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1018 | 964 | 58% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1098 | 67% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1080 | 1064 | 52% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1222 | 1120 | 64% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1121 | 1140 | 47% | | Won |
| 1140 | 847 | 84% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1081.1 vs 1036.1 has a 56.43% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).