First Threat
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 12
Defender wins (British): 6
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2022-12-04 | Lost |
| 1099 | 918 | 74% | 2020-12-13 | Won |
| 933 | 1220 | 16% | 2020-07-05 | Won |
| 1117 | 1132 | 48% | 2020-02-09 | Won |
| 1007 | 1036 | 46% | 2019-05-22 | Lost |
| 1189 | 1004 | 74% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 947 | 975 | 46% | 2017-10-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1046 | 40% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 1075 | 906 | 73% | 2015-05-05 | Won |
| 1075 | 1051 | 53% | 2014-04-18 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 1020 | 927 | 63% | 2009-03-13 | Lost |
| 1206 | 1148 | 58% | 2007-10-01 | Lost |
| 1218 | 1100 | 66% | 2003-04-27 | Won |
| 1133 | 1068 | 59% | 2000-07-08 | Won |
| 1202 | 1121 | 61% | 2000-05-30 | Won |
| 1079 | 1079 | 50% | | Won |
| 1079 | 846 | 79% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1085.1 vs 1041.7 has a 56.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).