Gavin's Gamble
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18 (11 on the archive and 7 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 12
Defender wins (German): 5
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1002 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 1012 | 923 | 63% | 2016-11-06 | Won |
| 995 | 1228 | 21% | 2014-05-30 | Lost |
| 889 | 951 | 41% | 2013-11-24 | Won |
| 982 | 967 | 52% | 2012-12-26 | Won |
| 1037 | 1085 | 43% | 2012-07-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1016 | 68% | 2009-09-21 | Tied |
| 1074 | 971 | 64% | 2006-12-28 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-10-29 | Lost |
| 1150 | 999 | 70% | 2005-08-19 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1110 | 52% | 1994-08-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1022.5 vs 1010.3 has a 51.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).